tv Street Signs CNBC May 15, 2012 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT
tna. >> matt, thank you very much. see you back here tomorrow. that'll do it for "power lunch," sue. >> it does. have a great afternoon, everybody. see you back at the ranch, ty. "street signs" begins right now. see you tomorrow. and welcome to "street signs" where the tradergate scandal rolls on. anger at jpmorgan's shareholder meeting. investors slamming management. the department of justice reportedly opening an inquiry. jamie dimon remains contrite. should he fall in his checkbook and give his bonus back? we'll debate. one of wall street's whales investing titan david teper buying money into tech. should you follow the big fish into names like apple and microsoft? today's disaster du jour is not a stock. it is an entire industry. coal. man mandy, the latest crime in america. texting while walking. can we really legislate away
stupidity? >> what will be next? breathing and walking? a back and forth day for stocks today with the news out of greece putting a slight damper on investors' spirits. the dow trying to avoid a ninth loss in ten sessions. of course we've been just in negative territory a moment ago sitting just flat with an upside bias as we speak. techs and financials providing the biggest boost for the s&p 500. though it is right near the break even line as well right now. as for the nasdaq, 2012's best performer among the major averagers outperforming the dow and s&p 500 today as well. to the floor of the nyse. bob pisani is down there. i know you want to talk housing. i love housing as well. we will get to housing. in the meantime what's been pushing us into negative territory, in and out over the course of the day? >> energy. energy stocks and materials. oil on the downside. even though nat gas is performing a little better today. energy stocks again sitting near their lows of the year. oil service names or exploration production companies, they have
been a real drag. on top of that, the material names. this is the global growth story. have been weak as well. can i just talk about housing and show you why i'm happy? the homebuilders survey came out. they do this every month. numbers were good this quarter, this month. sentiment is slowly starting to improve. here's going back ten years what the numbers are looking like. there you can see the little prop up we've seen in the last few months. this is the break even line. this means optimism. i don't want to push you too much. see the big decline we had in 2007 and 2008. but the homebuilders are a little more optimist k. if you take a look at the numbers here today for the homebuilders with they're a market leadership believe it or not today. itv, that etf for the homebuilders, you can buy the home builders in one single stock. itb sitting near the highest levels in many, many years now. a four-five year chart. back to you. moving on now to more fallout from what we're calling as of right now tradergate at
jpmorgan chase. clever rb right? the department of justice opening an investigation into jpm's $2 billion trading loss. the news comes on the same day the bank held its annual shareholder meeting. our mary thompson is there live in tampa, florida, at that meeting. mary? >> reporter: hey there, brian. the meeting was short on protesters, long on security and over very, very quickly. ceo jamie dimon started speaking so rapidly at the opening of the meeting you thought it would be over in 15 minutes. instead it took 50 with dimon addressing those trading losses right at the top. >> this should never have happened. i can't justify it. unfortunately these mistakes were self-inflicted. we are fully engaged now in doing a thorough review of the issues that led to these losses. there are many lessons here and many changes in policy and procedures that are already being implemented. in addition all corrective action will be taken as necessary. >> reporter: clawbacks are one possible action. dimon told reporters after the meeting the bank might take. though he declined to say when and to whom this might happen.
asked by a shareholder if the losses would impact the bank's dividend, timen said he didn't think so. as for shareholders their comments focused more on the ongoing mortgage mess with some people saying, you know what, the delays in refinancings, problems with foreclosures, that's costing the bank, shareholders and homeowners far more than those multibillion dollar trading losses. as for the votes at today's meeting with, overwhelmingly shareholders approved the executive compensation package. though a vote on a proposal to separate the roles of ceo and chairman received a fairly high 41%, still not the majority needed to pass. lastly, shareholders did approve a proposal to give them written consent. the meeting coming as that news about the doj investigation broke. jpmorgan said it had no comment on that investigation. back to you. >> mary thompson in tampa, thank you. >> reporter: much. faz the feds and throngs of angry shareholders are not enough, now the comptroller of new york city wants to claw back jamie dimon's compensation. other critics are now also calling for ceo jamie dimon's
job. they say it's all part of a growing arrogance in the corner office. one man calling for the claw backs, john lucas with us along with cnbc contributor michael far. michael far with an op-ed in politico today titled "jpmorgan chase suffering as it should." john, i want to begin with you. why are you calling for a claw back of composition bonus, et cetera, from jamie dimon. >> we are big shareholders here in new york city. we have close to $400 million of shares in jpm. we're calling on the board to assure all of us shareholders and the public in general they intend to follow threw on the claw back policies they already put in place. >> dimon said, john, at the shareholders meeting he said we will do the right thing. that may well include claw backs. you're actually asking for his pay and bonus as well? >> we're looking for the board to exercise their leadership and responsibility here. the board is made up of independent directors as well as company insiders.
they need to take a look at who -- which executives were responsible for this humongous loss. they need to hold those executives accountable as per the claw back provision. >> michael, do you agree? >> i am sitting here shaking pom-poms for the comptroller of new york city. this is fabulous and this is what he should be doing for shareholders. and to hold folks accountable. here's my problem. i think we have to be very cautious not to be the ready, shoot, aim sort of judgment makers and decision makers. i own shares of jpmorgan. i still need to try and figure out exactly what happens with this trade. was it reckless, irresponsible behavior, or was it more of a hedge the way jamie dimon suggested? it certainly resulted in a whole lot of money and a whole lot of loss. albeit, probably even if it got to the max of a $3 billion loss would be less than the sort of pretax income of a single quarter. so this is a cash flow item. it's an earnings item.
it's not a balance sheet item. we really have to go to the heart i think to see if it was nefarious or not. bravo, comptroller liu, at least, for raising the bright light on to this. i think a very important situation. >> michael, without getting too much in the weeds here, obviously a lot of this is tied to psychology in terms of the higher you get, the bigger you get, the more impervious to problems you feel. obviously the more risk you take. do we have that this is something that's happened in this situation, or is that not the case with jamie dimon? >> no. i think -- i think part of it is. particularly his comments, what, 60 days ago about a tempest and a teapot when he referred to this situation. he was dismissive. but they were sort of operating in credit default swaps and a hedge involving almost $100 billion. maybe is what we're hearing. that doesn't seem like prudent behavior when you've got volcker rule sort of testimony going on on capitol hill. but we've seen this before, right? i wrote a book calmed "the
arrogant cycle." it's just come out. "the arrogant cycle" is in press now. i talk about this kind of behavior. we saw it, i think, from jon car zin. i think at mf global as they went under by what, by pushing one of the sovereign debt euro trades well past the point of no return. we saw it with aubrey mcclendon at chesapeake energy. he used, it seems, company wells to leverage and get personal loans for $1 billion. what would you do if you could borrow $1 billion, brian? >> john, stupidity is not a crime, right? i do wonder, do you agree with this investigation? i'm trying to think what laws may have been broken. why the department of justice is sniffing around. they lost a bunch of money. i just can't think what laws might have been broken from a bad trade. >> we leave it up to the regulators and investigation tors to look into that. as shareholders, this is what i do, represent the 700,000 pensioners in new york city. therefore the taxpayers as well.
there is a tremendous loss that has taken place here. yet some of -- all too often we have seen executives walk away with huge pay packages and suffer no consequences. what we're trying to do with this claw back provision, we're asking the board to act on these provisions, is not only to hold these individuals financially accountable, but also to send the message to top management that the public, that our shareholders are looking to see what their actions will produce and that they can't take exec kpesives risk with our money. >> not to convict in the court of public opinion until we have the facts in, don't we? we know these people made a lot of money. but we don't no necessarily that they did -- they lost money, was it a trade that went bad or did they do something wrong? isn't that still the crux? >> what we're calling for is the board to unequivocally say that they are going to act on the clawback provisions. that certainly means investigating exactly what
happened. who made the decisions and whether excessive risks were taken not in the interest of the long-term value of the company. >> comp controller, if you're talking about accountability having to go all the way up to the top levels of management, i'm going to ask you point-blank, would you call for jamie dimon to resign? >> this is a decision the board needs to take. all we're doing right now in new york city is on behalf of our pensioners calling for the board of directors, especially the infeint direi independent directors to take note and give us assurance. >> what are you going to do? >> listen. look at the -- >> what can you do? >> look at the 41% today who sent a very strong message. the 41% of shareholders who sent a very strong message that there needs to be a decoupling of the chief executive officer's position from that of chairman of the board. that already is a very strong message that we can't just have business as usual. while we own close to 400 million shares out of the entire company, that's certainly not a
majority stake. it is our responsibility, certainly my responsibility as a fiduciary to talk about this and call on the board to take its action. >> it looks as if on the annual shareholders meeting today they've already endorsed for him to keep that chairman role as well as the ceo role. michael farr, same question. would you ask for jamie dimon to resign? >> no. i don't think you go from hero to goat that quickly. i think he's been a very responsible operator. i think he's been very important, actually vital, to the success of the financial system and banking system in this country. so there's been a mistake made. we need to find out more. i understand and i, again, appreciate what the comptroller is suggesting. that we take a close look. and if there's culpability, there should definitely be consequence. if it's anner ror, we need to see it as an error and we need to take a look at the processes and procedures that can prevent that from happening again. >> looks as if there are already lots of investigations under way, rightly or wrongly. michael and comptroller, thank you for joining us. coming up on "closing bell"
we'll hear from former white house chief of staff and former jpmorgan william daley. up next on "street signs," clamenza in "the godfather" ended up sleeping with the fishes. that is bad. what about investing with them instead. a whale is not a fish. we know. you get the picture. >> what can you learn from the strategies of wall street's biggest and brightest whales. and wall street tells us a way of life for millions of americans is in serious danger. we're going to mine for answers when "street signs" returns. big splash with the employees. [ duck yelling ] [ male announcer ] find out more at... [ duck ] aflac! [ male announcer ] ...forbusiness.com. ♪ ha ha! [ creaking ] [ male announcer ] trophies and awards lift you up. but they can also hold you back. unless you ask, what's next?
welcome back. millennial media currently trading to the downside by just over 9%. the mobile ad company tanks after reporting a net loss even though revenues grew 53%. the company ipo'd back in early april at 13 a share. about a buck over that. still today not doing great. question. when are sec filings not boring? >> never. >> answer? when those filings reveal what hedge funds are holding them. >> wrong answer. >> they're called 13-fs. they're a rare look into the portfolios of the most secrettive hedge funds. last night we got a look at david teper's appaloosa management. they nearly tripled their stake in apple and nearly doubled their stake in microsoft.
heavy in tech. should you be investing like tepper and go top heavy in tech? let's talk about that with carol pepper, ceo of pepper international as well as phil silverman, managing parter of king view capital. let's talk about investing in tech. do you like these moves? >> i do. i do. i manage money for families with over $100 million in net worth. >> evil 1%. >> they're not so evil. >> i'm going to throw some stats at you here. thronge e the longest losing streak since october 2008. >> i think it's a buying opportunity. we see huge growth in the tech sect perp look at all the advances in technology. look at how apple blew the lights out with the last earnings projection. i like tech. this is a buying opportunity. >> phil, are you following the whales like tepper?
>> we follow what they do. i would cautious investors to just blindly reading a 13-f and following what they see a hedge fund manager doing. there is a little bit of a delay between when they report their positions. you don't really know what they have else going on in their portfolio as far as options or derivative positions. but as far as david tepper's picks with apple and microsoft, i do think those are excellent company. but apple is one of those ones that just -- its its own thing. it's the best company in the world. i wouldn't look at the whole tech space based on how apple is doing. >> the big drop that it's had recently, for you, what does that suggest to you? >> most likely buying opportunity. i mean, it had run up so much in the last few months. i mean, the stock started to move p move parabolically. the valuation in apple isn't out of control. mean, there's a huge company.
they're just doing everything right. >> carol, forget about apple and microsoft for a minute. you're working with the 100 million club. right? >> yep. >> you're smart. they're smart. what are they investing in now? is it stocks? art? wine? >> real estate. real estate. >> real estate? >> real estate is high up on the list right now. >> what kind of real estate? >> high-end trophy real estate. >> investing or buying. >> it is investing. most of them buy for the long haul. we -- regular investors can play this through looking at etfs like simon properties groups, for example. this is really something that they like. we also are invested heavily in u.s. equities right now. >> i'm one of these boring wonky guys. i went through gm's holdings. top six holdings all property reits. still smart investment? >> definitely. we're reaching the bottom of the real estate cycle. now is time for the regular investors to think about it again. >> phil, do you like the reits? do you like real estate right now? >> you know, i'm not wild about
real estate. i think -- i think it's got some time before it's going to recover. but certainly you're getting a lot of yield in these reits. a lot of people are reaching for those. i think what you need to really look at is that we are seeing growth slowing in the u.s. a lot of -- i think a lot of investors and traders have gotten caught a little flat footed in the last few weeks as some less than stellar numbers have come out. and i think that a lot of people are moving to a defensive stance. i think rightfully so. >> carol, ladies also get last word on "street signs." >> how come you never give it to me? >> you just take it. i don't have to give it. carol, what are rich people not buying? what are they avoiding at all costs? >> global bonds. they're avoiding europe at all costs. they're very worried about what's happening over there. >> at what point do you feel like we're starting to bump along the bottom and it might be -- it's always darkest before the dawn, isn't it? >> yeah. let's wait -- >> what would be the signal for you? >> let's wait till the second elections in greece in june. let's see what happens after that for europe. >> thank you very much. >> just take what you want. >> i always have the last word.
i had the last word. >> phil, thank you. >> pepper and tepper. wall street gets set to go gaga over facebook. but main street is decidedly maybe even no more. the stunning result of an exclusive cnbc/ap poll coming up. much more fun than sitting at home on a computer liking stuff is getting out and doing stuff, like that. riding a snow mobile. problem is a maker maker of snow mobiles not expected to sell as many. that is a lot more fun than, hey, what's up, on a computecom >> like. >> last word. right here. sullivan. before we head to break, here's today's return on retirement. possible social security and medicare cutbacks. ununpredictable recession recovery. have some future retirees frustrated about their ability to plan ahead. so what percent of americans
polled in the 2012 retirement confidence survey said they were very confidence they will have enough money to live comfortably in retirement? the answer when we return. not quite knowing what the next phase was going to be, you know, because you been, you know, this is what you had been doing. you know, working, working, working, working, working, working. and now you're talking about, well you know, i won't be, and i get the chance to spend more time with my wife and my kids. it's my world. that's my world. ♪
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today's return on retirement question. what percent of future retireries were very confident they will have enough money to live comfortably in retirement? the answer? 14%. that matches the lowest level of confidence in over two decades, since the employee benefit research institute has been conducting surveys. for more on retirement, go to retirement.cnbc.com. well, not much of a rally going on today. still, stocks are high for the day. but our next guest says watch out, world. the dow could be headed for
100,000. joining us from brussels is head of fixed income research and marketing at bnp. phillip, obviously when we throw out a really bold call like that you really have to back it up. are you backing this up with anything except for history? >> well, it's not very logical that we have four long periods going back to '29. then for '44 to '66 after second world war we had a massive rally. dow going from 100 to 1,000. stocks went back to sleep from '66 to '82. in '66 the dow is still 1082. a big bull market from '82 to 2000 where the dow went 13-field. that's only return of about 12.2% a year.
which could happen again. i still think it's fairly early because we have only 12 years in this bear market. typically they last 15 to 20 years. i think we still have a couple of rough years ahead of us. after that if you still believe in united states and they will still have a dominant role to play in the world, which i believe, i still thinks stocks could go massively higher. >> you're giving yourself a very big window in terms of time frame. you're looking at 100,000 in 25 years. in a 25-year time frame, right? what kind of assumptions are you making when you give this forecast? >> well, first of all, you get -- you have to get rid of the short-term problems. there is still way too much debt in the system. that's what caused the bear market to start in 2000 for starters. secondly you need to stay -- that's what you have today. central banks, ecb, but also the federal reserve injecting money each time we get into trouble. it's time to stop injecting
money. markets fall apart again. they have to inject again. >> you're saying central banks just have to keep on injecting money? you're saying central banks have to keep on injecting money and find a way to inflate zblsh that's what they're doing now at the moment. at the end of the day it's not going to be helpful. because each time we see that the markets go up for a while, but when they stop, it falls apart. we have to get rid of the amount of debt. what you have to do, if you have to save it away, you could in a certain way inflate it away. maybe in europe you will have some defaults to get rid of it. get some -- that would be the fourth way to get rid of the debt level. debt levels around the world are way too high. especially in europe. also in united states. until they have been worked off, i believe we will not have this rally going. eventually we will get there and i'm quite positive for the future. >> could be a rocky road. we'll call you back in 25 years' time, see if you're right. thank you very much, phillip.
>> bold call. >> bold call. up next on "street signs," wall street still loving facebook. main street, not so much. the details of real interest in our exclusive poll after the break. >> i think the technical word is meh. later on, texting time-outs. you may remember this video of a woman falling into a mall fountain because she was texting, not concentrating. now one u.s. city is cracking down on preoccupied pedestrians. you know you've done it. coming up. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 the spx is on my radar. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 we're hitting new highs. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and i'm on top of it all with charles schwab. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i use streetsmart edge and its tools like... tdd# 1-800-345-2550 screener plus - i can custom build my own screens tdd# 1-800-345-2550 or use predefined ones. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and i can trade wherever i want, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 whenever i want. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 the kicker? tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i pay $8.95 a trade. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 that's a deal in any language.
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we had to take a quick look at some of the stocks that are news makers today. first up, avon. >> down about 10% today. tanking. cody withdrawing their bid. 24.75. bad avon board. >> absolutely. next company. dick's sporting goods. really spiking after beating the street. >> raised guidance. same store sales good. people like golf again. >> next up. let's take a look at tjx. parent of tjmaxx. >> guided to low end. because they're spending to grow, wall street likes growth. stock up. >> wow. you really are doing this fast.
>> that's what i was told. >> where is the color, dude? next up, the proshares biotech etf hitting a high. >> all doing well. >> the one we were teasing. those really cool arctic cats. >> atvs not selling great. snow mobiles selling worse. lack of snow does that. >> lack of snow does do that. >> start tanking. cutting forecasts. >> winter weather. disaster du jour. not a single company today but an industry. coal. patriot coal cutting its outlook for, you guessed it, coal sales. other coal stocks sharply lower as well today. pcx saying one of the customers may default. did not name the customer. patriot coal, oh, down 80%. >> ouch. >> over the past year. 80%. at this rate of decline in the coal industry, folks, there's really only two options, right? an eventual comeback. buy the stocks cheap for the future. or some of these companies
simply go away. let's find out what's going to happen. ubs analyst joining us now. pcx. down 80%. anr not doing much better. does this thing turn around or does it go to zero? >> the action today, you see the stock down quite precipitously today. we think it's related specifically with respect to patriot's announcement last night that a key customer had potentially defaulted on a contract. we do think that, you know, this is -- this is primarily what's driving the action today. what we would say is that, you know, it is related to metallurgical coal. a high margin product. the contract was likely signed at a higher price a couple of months ago. they're now going to have to go into the market and remarket the coal into the marketplace. i think that's the primary reason as to why it's currently down today the way it is. >> coal prices are being smashed, right? what's the end game here? is there anything that can help the coal producers at this
stage? >> you have to sort of separate the market into two parts. between thermal coal which has been impacted by natural gas and metallurgical coal related to the steel space. last year we had an interesting environment where he had floods that resulted in a spike in metallurgical coal prices almost to record highs. the floods in australia was primarily the reason for that. floods came away. pricing came down as more supply came into the marketplace as well, too. what is interesting in our view with respect to metallurgical coals, we actually think that market is starting to base, in fact, pricing has actually gone up in the past couple of weeks. some of it is related to some labor unrest in australia. what's interesting is, is that both walter and alpha on recent earnings conference calls noted that there's actually been an increase in request for volumes with respect to the space. our preference remains in the metallurgical coal space. we do think there are opportunities there. specifically we do like walter and alpha at these levels. >> with regard to patriot, listen, it was a $75 stock four
years ago. it's at $4 and change today. is there any risk this company goes to zero? >> i mean, at this stage right now, the company has some good assets and some lower quality assets. the thermal coal environment has just been -- has been terrible as of late. it's related to natural gas, related to fuel switching. we've seen the price of natural gas fall precipitously. you've seen mine closures as a result. not just by patriot but by other producers as well, too. and so you do have an environment where the earnings profile of the company has changed over the last year as a result of this. we would point out, though, that weather is part of the factor as well, too. you basically had one of the warmest winters on record. so you basically had a big drop -- >> bottom line, buy patriot. >> bottom line right now, we prefer at these levels alpha and walter. we do think they have better balance sheets. generating free cash flow. you know, relative to where patriot is right now. we would use this opportunity -- >> thank you very much.
appreciate it. >> thank you. from the black dirty grossness of coal to the bright white and shiny products of colgate palmolive. tooth paste, ajax, soap, deodorant. even cat and dog food. shares up more than 60% over the last three years. that's a lot of tooth paste. the stock is hitting an all-time high today. >> that's still patriot. >> that was still patriot. because we're patriots here on cnbc. >> we really are. and we like coal. there's a lot of great men and women employeed in the coal industry both here and a land called terra australis. >> three mentions of australia in one show. probably a record. there you go. nice and shiny stock up by 2.6%. >> our producer said if we have five australia references, then an angel gets its wings. in advance of friday's facebook ipo street insider pointing out the facebook halo effect. firsthand technology value fund of 600,000 shares.
gsv capital represents 15% of their portfolio. hercules technology growth capital. you're getting the point. zynga contributed to 11% of facebook revenues in first quarter versus 12% in q-4. all those names are up. i'm getting a little heat here for saying meh with reference to facebook's ipo. i'm only saying that because, folks, a lot of people have tweeted in and said they're over the facebook ipo because there's so much hype going on. nonetheless, while wall street gears up for the social offering, main street perhaps is feeling, as i said, maybe a little bit over it all. our kayla tausche with the result of an exclusive cnbc/ap facebook poll. kayla, some very interesting findings. and possibly even some troubling signs here, no? >> yeah. troubling signs where montization is concerned. we'll start with the simplest yet the largest question facing potential shareholders. will facebook be a good investment? the public's answer was, well, maybe. half side buying facebook stock would be a good investment. those numbers are only slightly
better among active investors. only 3% say a $100 billion valuation would undervalue the network. people also not very sure if the company will continue to be successful. very mixed views there. 43% say it will be. but 46% say it's going to fade away as new technologies come along. pretty hard to believe for something that has 900 million users. but where does that uncertainty come from? it all seems to start with the man in charge. for all he's accomplished as ceo, the public as surprisingly tepid views of him as a leader with only 18% of respondents feeling very confident about his ability to run a large publicly traded company like facebook. 60% weren't so sure. then there are the trust issues about facebook. just about 60% of facebook users say they have little or no trust in the company in keeping their personal information private. even though they're putting that
information out there themselves. still, 60% say they don't trust facebook with it. separately, more than half of respondents say they wouldn't feel safe using facebook as an e-commerce platform. that's not good news for the company that's trying to expand in that market. finally, there's the lack of ad interest. 83% of respondents saying they never or hardly ever click on that sponsored content even though that's the engine of facebook's growth and profit engine. what does it all add up to? a whole lot of uncertainty. especially for long-term investors. but for those just wanting to witness an historic ipo, they won't have to wait much longer. >> bad news for me, too. my stock draft pick was actually facebook. i have to buy it at the end of the first trading day. bad luck for me. >> you're doomed. only guy adami is more doomed than you. >> there's another thing which at no time really come up in the survey, kayla. but something that we were talking about today on "squawk box" was, you know, a really
important thing that facebook is not really doing well right now is the translation over to mobile. you know, everyone wants to be able to do everything on a mobile device. you know, it's very cumbersome to do facebook and put those ads and access those ads easily on facebook. obviously, we need to access those ads. >> if consumers already aren't clicking on ads on facebook when they're right there in front of them on a computer -- >> bingo. >> -- are they actually going to be effective on a mobile device where you have a smaller screen and things take longer on a browser to load? probably not. >> you do everything on mobile to be quick wesh right? clicking on an ad is obviously going to take a while. >> kayla, listen. you're of a different -- you're of a different generation than i am. >> you don't know that. >> you're in the facebook generation. >> he could be your dad is what he's saying. >> i could be. >> you'd be a teen father. >> you know, just -- you know. anyway, there's a lot of people i know, myself included, that were on it. sniffed around. got in touch with some old friends. then left because basically it's just boring. isn't that a risk, too?
not just not clicking on ads. people like, facebook. i've gotten in touch with everybody. i don't need to see a news feed about my friend's dog. >> i will say i was part of the beginning wave of facebook, which is not to say i was the first person on the network. but i was in college when the product actually came out. it started as a procrastination tool. it then graduated to a wedding scrapbook. now my friends are having kids on it. it's turned into a baby scrapbook. there's this thing called the mom effect. people are say ing ifyou join facebook as a young person, it becomes uncool once your mom is on it. once you have the entire world on facebook, does it lose that sheen? some people say it probably does. >> your mom and your grand mom can watch what you're doing and see what you're doing. >> my grandmother is on facebook. for the record. she is. >> your grandma's on facebook? >> she is. >> what's she posting? >> she loves aaron rodgers from the green bay packers. she follows his fan page. >> defense in facebook, one of the plus points. the fact that it's cross-generational. it has really, really got into
everybody's lives. >> remember, folks, you are the product. right? a lot of people are going to twitter. path which is a little more tightly wound. a mobile application where it's max 150 contacts. what did malcolm gladwell say? you can only have 150 real friends you can keep in touch with or contacts. that psychologist and psychiatrists have proven you sort of lose interest after that. >> possibly maybe only two real friends in your whole life. >> that's exactly right, martha. coming up, thank you, kayla. if you want to dig into the facebook poll a little further, find out more about all of this, facebook.cnbc.com for all the results there. check it out. our extensive information. check out the charts. we're going to chart a course for your money coming up. john cozar has made a lot of correct calms lately. his new call on where the stock market is headed. later on, "50 shades of grey" taking 50 states by storm. we'll tell you which american city has the biggest love affair with books. that's after the break.
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[ male announcer ] ducati knows it's better for xerox to manage their global publications. so they can focus on building amazing bikes. with xerox, you're ready real business. i'm bertha coombs at the market desk. take a look at the closing trades here on wti nymex crude. closing it looks like below $94 for the first time since december 19th.
the third straight day that we are seeing a low close for the year. bill, over to you. i know you like to see it when it closes lower. that means lower prices at the pump. >> that's what we can only hope for, bertha. thank you very much. i'm bill griffeth. coming up at the top of the hour on "closing bell" tyson foods has done well because the poultry giant has been able to continue passing on higher costs to consumers. will that continue? the company's ceo joins us at 3:15 eastern time. also ringing the closing bell. forget the big money center banks. one top portfolio manager says the regionals are the place to be right now in the wake of the jpmorgan trading mess. everybody is piling into facebook right now. getting ready for the ipo. but is it a good investment for the long haul? fame tech fund manager dan niles weighs in with his thoughts. should be very interesting. maria and i will see you at the top of the hour from the new york stock exchange. mandy, we'll see you then. >> thank you. earlier you heard from an analyst making the bold call
about the dow hitting 100,000 in 25 years. let's talk a little more short term now. joining us, a technician who's made a number of bold and correct calms on this show recently. john kozar. founder of asbury research. forget about the $100,000 call. you can't go that far out, i understand. a little more short term. maybe the next three or four months. what do you see happening with the broader stock market. >> i think we're start of some kind of a selloff here that we're about halfway through with. it looks like there can be -- i'm looking for maybe another 4% to 5% in most of the major averages, maybe down to 1290 to 1280 in the s&p. still a little bit more work to do on the downside. i think as we get towards the end of the year, early part of 2013, i think we could start to get some legs again. >> why do you see us taking a slide? what in the charts is showing you a potential haircut aside from the fact we've had a tough
couple weeks? >> well, some of the -- one thing we talked about when i was here last time was underperformance by technology. so far, since i've been on, technology's underperformed the s&p 500 by about 3%. but it looks like it still has a little bit room to do a little more underperformance. as long as tech is weak, it's going to be hard for the market to get going here. so i think maybe towards the end of the summer, i think we can maybe get some legs. but i don't think this is over yet. >> okay. so watch tech as a leading indicator. i want to ask you about oil as well. you did make a correct call on oil. where do you see the price of oil headed? i hope i'm not putting you on the spot here, john. >> no. i actually -- i don't have the dollar figures in front of me. but i can just say anecdotally that the move down in oil is probably about three-quarters over with. i think it can still go down a little more. but the interesting thing about oil is oil has been correlated to the s&p 500 for the last
three or four years. so we're actually watching oil as kind of a surrogate for the s&p. so once we see oil is getting a little washed out from a sentiment standpoint. so once oil starts to firm up, we can look for the s&p to firm up as well. >> do you see us higher one year from now than right now? in the stock isn't that correct? >> yes. yes, i do. >> this whole show is about p f brevity of answers. nice work. john kosar. asbury research. knowledge is good. >> good things come in small packages. senator harry reid weighing in on the tradergate at jpmorgan. he made these comments just moments ago. and talk about hitting the wall. but imagine this guy walking aimlessly into traffic. one new jersey town's answer and our debate, smart safety or nanny state gone wild. that debate coming your way. ng . ...which helped students and teachers get better results in ap courses.
they see them as ineffective. >> 83% of people never click on ads. >> general motors is saying that we're not going to buy facebook ads anymore. that is a wake-up call. >> that is a wake-up call. just moments ago on capitol hill, senate majority leader harry reid was asked about the senate steakout. the senator did not hold back. take a listen. >> i would suggest that jpmorgan take their business to las vegas, because it's just a gamble. it's clear that they were betting and they bet the wrong way. >> what do you think about that, eamon? >> well, that's a senator making that statement from las vegas.
in washington terms, it may be a bank that is profitable but this risk is very dangerous for them because it creates a firestorm where regulators are going to do something to follow up on comments like that from a very powerful senator. >> of course, if jw morgan went to vegas, they would use taxpayer money and junk it to vegas. please note my sarcasm. >> and they can't find the corporate jets the. the question is, how do you unwind this? goldman sachs came out with a pr offensive to get past the negative headlines. >> one other angle, he really has lost the moral high ground in terms of fighting against excessive regulation and it's not just a loss in terms of reputation. >> that's why you saw the president on "the view" so eager
to talk about this and actually a backhachbded compliment saying jpmorgan is one of the best run banks and saying, look, if even they can't make a success of this, that's why we need dodd frank and all of the margin requirements that we put in place. the president is giving a backhanded compliment to jamie dimon and taking credit for the reform that he's put in place. >> you know what? you know what's got me angry? no offense to senator harry reid. he's a u.s. senator that deserves respect and i understand that it was stupid but it was his own money. why doesn't congress look into how much money fannie mae has losted, freddie mac has lost, the post office continues to lose? when is the hearing of why the post office should go to vegas and continues to lose money every year and is going to need a giant bailout. i understand they are made about jpmorgan's own loss. but it's their own money. they were stupid, they are going
to pay the price, the stock got wiped out. dimon may or may not lose his job. but why doesn't harry and everyone else look into the government agencies that are a bunch of black hole and i apologize for that rant. i feel like santelli. >> your keyboard didn't survive. washington responds to big headlines and big news. >> somebody has to be the scapegoat. >> we just saw this with the government with the gsa story. >> every corner fannie mae and freddie mac come to the taxpayer like this. more arms for the poor, sir. >> yeah. >> it was a bad accident but i'm sorry. you get my point. $7.8 million loss. fannie mae just did a couple of months ago, you know, and that's real money for the taxpayer. >> it is real money for the taxpayer. >> sorry. >> jamie dimon lost jamie
dimon's money. >> bertha coombs, what have you got coming up? >> relation nal hedge fund is going to disclose the state this afternoon. when they follow the f-13 funds and one of the things that the firm is telling sources and telling "the wall street journal" is that they believe the north american beverage unit should be split off. back to you. >> okay. thank you very much. look at that spike. we're going to take a break. we apologize. we were going to talk about the walking and texting fines but we'll get to that. see you. see you. you ready? we wanna be our brother's keeper. what's number two we wanna do? bring it up to 90 decatherms. how bout ya, joe? let's go ahead and bring it online. attention on site, attention on site. now starting unit nine. some of the world's cleanest gas turbines
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